Belmont Park – June 25th Preview (Bonus Pick 6)

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We had a brilliant weekend betting Belmont Park, nailing the Pick 6 and Stakes race on Saturday. Time to keep the money rolling this week and get a head start on the weekend. Today’s card has just 9 races and is highlighted by the Easy Goer Stakes in the 8th. Excited for another great day for racing in Elmont, NY. Check out my breakdown below and my Pick 6 of the day!

Race 1 (1:15pm): $40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs on the inner turf, New York bred 3 yr olds and up fillies & mares 

Whoa whoa whoa! Our first race is actually…decent? I think so! Off the bat, I’m liking #9 Plink Freud, who is the morning line favorite and rightfully so. She has some of the most experience (especially on the turf), and has put up considerable figures despite winning yet. It’s her first time out since November, where she stumbled out of the gate but still lost by less than 2 lengths, and if this one can stay near its 5-2 morning line odds…I’ll be loving it. I’d imagine #2 Midnight Banker and Eric Cancel break for the lead early, as this one’s early pace figures are the best of the group. It’s a sketchy pick since she’s yet to race on the grass, but this isn’t a horse I want to leave off my ticket. Lastly, #11 Graetz also has that early pace like the two, and is making her first start at the claiming level, where trainer Jim Bond has done well as of recently. 

Race 2 (1:50pm): $16,000 Claiming, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up

Disclaimer: I have bet on #1 Mandatory Payout an absurd amount of times, and he has quite literally only lost me money, so he’s blacklisted from my picks from now on (which means he’ll end up winning this race). That being said, #10 Our Stormin Norman is one that I like here as he ran well last time out but weakened late. I think if Hernandez can control his pace he’ll be able to have enough in the tank for a late push. He’s been in the money in 9 out of 12, but is yet to be the finisher he needs to be, that may change here today. #7 Inside Info ran a beautiful race a few weeks ago here at Belmont Park where he broke his maiden in a 13 horse New York bred field, which also happened to be his first race under trainer George Weaver. I’m really liking this one to go for two in a row here. 

Race 3 (2:23pm): $25,000 Maiden Claiming, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, New York bred 3 yr olds and up

#4 Apex Predator has the early pace that I’m a fan of and also ran a decent race a couple weeks ago here, but wasn’t able to pull through in the end. He’s won at this distance before (but was disqualified and placed second after an inquiry) and has the pedigree as well – being sold for $250,000 at the Fasig Tipton auction in 2018. #10 Mariner Qui should be hot out of the gate but I’m not so sure he’ll have the pace to keep up at this added distance from his previous races. I like Ortiz back on him, and the Ortiz/Charltan combo has done well this year at Belmont. Eric Cancel rides #8 Unbridled John, who has been recording consistent speed and pace figures that are among the best in the group. He tried rallying in his last time out with Cancel but was unable to make up ground, however I think the added distance helps him this time around. 

Race 4 (2:55pm): $40,000 Claiming, 8½ furlongs on the outer turf, 3 yr olds and up

It’s #3 Abiding Star’s first run since November where he had a rough time at Aqueduct, but is looking to return to his winning ways. He has some of the most experience on the turf of this group and also has previously won a Stakes race, and as long as he doesn’t falter late he should be leading for the majority of this race. #4 Noble Thought should be the favorite at post time, as he has some incredible speed here which benefits him and Irad at the mile and a sixteenth distance. I’ll be taking #8 Siding Spring as well, who struggled in terms of speed his last two times out but still managed to stay in the money in both. He’s won before at this distance here at Belmont before as well, but is getting way too used to 2nd and 3rd place finishes. Liking the change up with Junior Alvarado in the irons as well here.

Race 5 (3:27pm): $40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs on the inner turf, New York bred 3 yr olds and up fillies & mares 

I’ll tell ya what – It’s a rare occasion when you see me passing up on a pony with a name related to the Spa…which is why it’s impossible for me to not take #1 Saratoga Love here – a Clemente/Rosario combination sitting at 3-1 morning line odds. I like this horse a lot in this one, but I’ll be honest I do not love the value especially if it drops below 3-1. We’ll see come post time, but like I said, can’t not take this one. For value, #2 Leyte is an interesting one to look at because of his early pace figures. On paper, Leyte is a slightly similar horse to the #9, he’s just put up slightly worse speed figures and is less experienced. However, at 15-1 morning line, I think this one’s odds have a great chance at getting up to 25-1 and offering incredible value across the board. Trainer Brad Cox brings the #7 Quantitativbreezin out for his first time and places Luis Saez on the saddle; the jockey/trainer duo has brought $2 bettors an impressive $5.37 return at Belmont this year also. Liking this one especially after some solid workout times. 

Race 6 (3:59pm): Allowance, 1 mile on the dirt, New York bred 3 yr olds and up fillies & mares 

Liking the #4 Holmdel Park, who ran here on the turf on June 5th, finishing in fourth just 2½ lengths back from the winner. The 4 is back on the grass again and I like her at this longer distance, as she certainly had more gas in the tank towards the end of her last sprint. Unlike Holmdel Park, #5 Nasty Affair has late pace that should benefit her more if she decides to come out slowly from the gate. At 6-1, the value on this one with Jose Ortiz on top is all I need. Tough to not consider #3 Singular Sensation, as she’s dropping down here and has the best speed figures of the group. That being said, I don’t like the value considering she struggled in her only turf race. 

Race 7 (4:32pm): $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs on the inner turf, New York bred 3 yr olds and up

The 7th isn’t necessarily the easiest one to pick a winner in that’s for sure, but what it does offer is a few horses with enough speed to finish in the money, so let’s try and find some value in this one. #6 Outrageous Bet (fantastic name, by the way), was flat last time out and never really picked up, although he has had some promising attempts in the past. It’s a short race and he won’t break for the lead, but if pace doesn’t hold up towards the end this 12-1 shot has a chance. #2 Discretionary Marc gets Irad in the irons and is looking to secure another June victory after a layoff, which is exactly what he did last year. He’s got some of the best Beyer and TimeForm figures in the group and will certainly be taking a large percentage of the money. Liking this one short on the inner turf, but not a ton under 3-1. Lind Rice offers two in this race – #4 Fast Getaway and #9 Big Engine (who is slightly favored in the morning line odds). Both will have a chance, but if I had to choose one I’m taking #4 Fast Getaway with Jose Ortiz on the saddle. This one is a finisher out of Into Mischief and has been improving as of late, loving him here.

Race 8 (5:05pm): The Easy Goer Stakes, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds 

Solid Stakes race here in the Easy Goer, and we’ve actually done quite well in the big races so far, so let’s keep it going. Sadly, I don’t have the most exciting breakdown here as I’m going big on the favorite #3 Casino Grande. Even with a talented 6 horse field, I think Irad and Clement have this one covered with the 8-5 morning line colt. I don’t think bettors will be hammering this one as much as the book says it will, so maybe we can get some better value come post time with the 3…we shall see, but this is my single of the day. 

Race 9 (5:36pm): Maiden Special Weight, 7 furlongs on the inner turf, New York bred 3 yr olds and up fillies & mares 

Only 9 races on today’s card, so with one less opportunity to make money, it means we have to end the day with a W. But shit…another god damn Irad and Clement horse is the favorite here. Yup, #12 Fresco is sitting at 7-5 in the morning and will likely stay around there, but in a much larger field, this is a race I will not be hitting the favorite in). #5 Towering Gaze is 5-1 and gets Jose again, who had a solid debut here on the turf a couple weeks ago, finishing 3rd of 12 and is looking to improve this time around – absolutely taking this one here. Next is #3 Magnolia’s Lady, who is ridden by Lezcano and Linda Rice trained, currently 6-1 odds. This horse is another that ran on the turf here a couple weeks ago, and had late speed that brought her from the back of the pack to 4th. With an added furlong, this one has some added value. Lastly, watch out for #1 Unicorn Sally. At 15-1, this one offers sneaky value in a turf race at a new distance for her. She’s had some good runs but has never been the closer she needs to be, although I don’t hate this one across the board and will not be leaving her out of my pick 6. 

TODAYS PICK 6 CARD: 
R4: 3/4/8
R5: 1/2/7
R6: 3/4/5 2 (replaced the scratched #5 with #2)
R7: 2/4/6
R8: 3 4 (replaced scratched #3 with #4)
R9: 1/3/5/12/10 (replaced the scratched #3 with #10)

Total cost: $64.20 for a $0.20 ticket. 

Be sure to keep up with my action on Twitter @SpaSaturdays, where I’ll be posting additional bets/tickets throughout the day. Thanks for reading, best of luck everyone! 

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