Yesterday was an interesting day at Belmont Park, to say the least. If you were looking for value in any of the races, you most likely didn’t find much at the end of the day. Eight out of ten races were straight chalk…and the two that weren’t favorites were still just 5-1. Favorite bettors had one hell of a day. And in the end…so did I! Somehow…Let me explain.
My early pick 5 was shit (not that it would have paid that well, considering a $.50 wager paid out $99), so I decided to hit the Pick 6 starting in Race 5. How’d I do? Well, if you read my breakdown of yesterdays races, you would notice that I said I was fading the favorite, #9 Shiraz. I’m sure you don’t need to look up what happened here. Anyways, after losing the Pick 6 on the first leg (I had FOUR horses in the first leg…and didn’t choose the favorite. You all have permission to laugh at my stupidity), I decided to take oneeee last stab at the last Pick 5. Well, my $24 wager on the late Pick 5 (and Pick 3) paid off. Thank God.
But enough about me and yesterday…It’s time to seize the 10 opportunities we have at building our bankroll up before the big day tomorrow. So let’s take a look at today’s card, and make some god damn money on this gorgeous Friday!
Race 1 (1:15pm): Maiden Special Weight, 5 furlongs on the dirt, New York Bred 2 yr olds
10 runners. 10 first time starters. What a race to begin the day with! In events like these, I try to take a very holistic approach on the situation and find value outside of the morning line favorite(s). Jose Ortiz had one hell of a day yesterday, picking up 4 wins, and I think he’s looking to pick up where he left off. Ortiz pairs up with #7 Competitive Hero, who was purchased for $135,000 last August in Saratoga, a significantly higher price than anyone else in this field. Next up is #8 Quick Nick, trained by Christophe Clement, who has an impressive ROI for first time starters. Lastly, I don’t hate #2 Takecareyallchickn, who has ran some solid workouts as of recent and could be nice value at 12-1.
Race 2 (1:50pm): Maiden Special Weight, 1¼ miles on the inner turf, 3 yr old and up fillies & mares
Liking the morning line favorite in this one (sadly)…#2 All Others Follow is Chad Brown trained, has Manny Franco on the saddle, has the best pedigree of the field, and, most importantly, has without a doubt the best late speed of the pack. A necessity for this 10 furlong run. The next horse I like runs a bit like the favorite but offers better value. #6 Curly Wurly has the late speed like the 2, and with another great trainer/jockey duo in Clement/Alvarado – liking this filly. Tough to not take Clement’s other pony in this one, #4 Coilean Brown, who is coming off of a decent layoff but has some solid experience at this distance.
Race 3 (2:23pm): $14,000 Claiming, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up
#3 Jack Bo has early speed unlike any other horse in this race, you bet your ass he’ll break for the lead early, but the question that remains is can he keep it up in the latter half of the race? The 3 has had a couple close ones at shorter distances, and I have a hard time leaving him out if he’s going off at 12-1. #6 Ari’s Naughty Luca should also come out of the gate hot and will be competing with both #3 and the rightful favorite #7 Other Equal Things, who may not be the leader in the beginning but certainly has the stamina to burst past everyone in the final furlong here.
Race 4 (2:55pm): $32,000 Claiming, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up
There is one horse to beat here, and that is #3 Leitone, who is 7-5 morning line odds and will win this race. Rob Atras has struggled at this Belmont meet so far, but this one seems like a surefire pick. Will be singling this one in the Pick 5.
Race 5 (3:27pm): $40,000 Maiden Claiming, 6½ furlongs on the inner turf, 3 yr old and up fillies and mares
Tough race here, but a good one in terms of value! #2 Mariposa D’Oro is coming off of a couple iffy performances on the dirt, but I like the switch up to the turf in this one. Johnny V takes her saddle for the first time, and trainer Michael Stidham has had impressive success with first time turfers. Another one I’m liking is #3 Lucky Lindsey, who has early speed and could also benefit from the switch to the grass. Can’t leave out the favorite #7 Miss You Blues, who is dropping down in class after a shaky last time out. After a little bit of a layoff, I’m interested to see how this one fares today.
TODAYS EARLY PICK 5 CARD:
R1: 2/7/10 (replaced scratched #8 with #10)
Total ticket: $40.50
Let’s have a day, folks!