Shaping up to be a pretty sloppy day here at Belmont Park…With that, I will not be releasing a full analysis of the day, as I really don’t know what the conditions of the track will be like come 4pm. The goal here is to nail some winners early on, and find some value in the tail end of the early Pick 5 for when the slop comes in. Let’s have a Saturday, folks!
Race 1 (1:15pm): $40,000 Claiming, 8½ furlongs on the inner turf, fillies & mares 3 yrs old and up
After one hell of a day yesterday, do we ride Irad out here? You’re god damn right we do. He takes the saddle of the favorite #2 Sun Summers, who is the horse to beat based off of recent speed figures. Am I absolutely confident she’ll beat the pack with ease? No, but there aren’t really any other horses here that impress besides #6 Peaceful Feeling. I’ll be singling the 2 here, but feel free to add the 6 in if you’d like.
Race 2 (1:50pm): $25,000 Claiming, 7 furlongs on the dirt, New York bred 3 yr olds and up
#4 Invest is the one I’m liking here, as he sits 7-2 in the morning and is under Avila who has one hell of an ROI for first claimers. Loving #1 O Shea Can You See…she’ll enjoy the added furlong here and has some of the best late speed of the group. Impossible to leave Irad out here as well, who is on #6 Foolish Ghost, a horse that’s coming off a long layoff but has the speed to win here. Might have to hit the trifecta here, because I can see the 1 coming in late and beating out the 6.
Race 3 (2:23pm): Starter Allowance, 7 furlongs on the outer turf, 3 yr olds and up
It’s looking like the rain should be falling by this time, but I’m playing it as if it isn’t. #7 Yes And Yes is one hell of a value play sitting at 8-1. He gets Dylan Davis in the irons, and was just beat here just a few weeks back by #8 Bourbon Currency, who I will also be adding to my card. Can’t discount #2 Kumar here, who is the favorite at 2-1 and gets Irad. I’ll also be taking #9 Albie.
Race 4 (2:55pm): $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs on the dirt, New York bred fillies & mares 3 yrs old and up
Alright…3pm…rain should be coming down hard now so let’s find a horse that loves the slop and has value. Off that bat, I’m gonna be honest, I will NOT be taking the favorite here. Yes she’s the best horse of the bunch, but I very much so dislike the value under these conditions. Instead, I’ll take #8 Mary’s Girl and #5 Bangle Gal, who both have had some solid runs in the slop and will be over 10-1 when this one goes off. Won’t leave out #2 Puffery here though, who has some of the best speed of the group and gets the Junior/Rudy combination.
Race 5 (3:27pm): Maiden Special Weight, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, New York bred 3 yr olds and up
Let’s send this early Pick 5 home. #2 Farragut is my selection here, as he was just beaten here in the mud by a nose a few weeks back. At 12-1, #3 Stash My Money is a must bet here. His numbers may not be up to par with the favorites, however he’s fared well in dirt sprints and he’s getting 9 lbs lighter this time around. Not going to count out this favorite though – as #5 Flying Finish is a solid horse all around and especially well at this distance.
EARLY PICK 5 CARD:
Total cost: $54 for a $.50 ticket.
LET’S HAVE A DAY LADIES AND GENTS! Keep updated on Twitter @SpaSaturdays.
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