Keeneland Picks + Preview – July 10th, 2020

Looking to bounce back after a rough Thursday at Keeneland but we are ready for one hell of a weekend in Kentucky! Today’s card is highlighted by the Maker’s Mark Mile in Race 8, a $300,000 Grade 1 Stakes race. Really liking this card today and ready to make some money going into the weekend.

Race 1 (1:05pm): $50,000 Claiming, 6 furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up 

Not a bad first race to start the weekend here at Keeneland, some quality horses running in this one. I’m liking the favorite #4 My Man Flinstone, who is ML 5/2 and should hopefully stick around there too. He’s an Into Mischief horse and was by far the most expensive of the group at $175,000 and gets Lanerie in the irons, who nearly won on him in March. #3 Tonka Flower is one I’m loving for value at 10-1. He struggled last time out as the favorite, but has recorded solid Beyers in previous races and won at this distance on the dirt before. Lastly, #6 Edgemont Road is very similar to the 4 horse here and has some incredible early speed. His last time out was disappointing, but he returns to the dirt here and will be looking to break early. In this dirt sprint, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a wire to wire. 

Race 2 (1:39pm): Maiden Special Weight, 9½ furlongs on the turf, fillies & mares 3 yrs old and up

Some decent value to be found here starting with #6 Sursum Corda, and Ian Wilkes trained fillie getting Keeneland’s very best Julian Leparoux on the saddle. Last time out, the 6 ran a hell of a race at the mile and an eighth distance and was gaining in the final furlong but finished 2nd. Had the race been a little longer she would have been the winner…good thing this one’s an eighth of a mile longer. I like #8 Take Charge Patti for similar reasons to the 6. She may not be as good of a horse on paper, but the 10-1 ML odds is worth taking. Last time out, the 8 recorded her highest Beyer yet at 69 (nice) and came in a narrow 2nd place, while gaining late. Extend the race and she wins it. Tough to look away from #2 Fortuna, who gets Luis Saez on top; the duo were also just beat their last time out here a couple weeks ago, posting a 77 speed figure. I don’t hate the value at 3-1 at all, but I’m afraid she’ll be bet down much more. 

Race 3 (2:12pm): Allowance, 6½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up

There’s no way #6 Heros Reward stays at 5-1 come post time…right? The colt is coming off of two straight wins with Tyler Gaffalione as they look to complete the hat trick here against better competition. This one has the early speed to get out in front of the pack and has proven to hold that speed through this distance. If you back class, #1 Gozilla is the clear pick to win this one and the numbers support that. At 9-5 ML, this two time G1 runner takes a drop in class in his first time out since October. Could be an easy race for Steve Asmussen to pick up some cash. These two are all I want in this one. 

Race 4 (2:45pm): Maiden Special Weight, 5½ furlongs on the turf, 2 yr old fillies 

Bunch of youngin’s trying to make a name for themselves in this race! There should be plenty of value all around and picking a winner might not be easy, so I’ll likely spread this race with 5ish horses for my early pick 5 card and hope to hit a longshot. Look at #3 Guana Cay…9-5?! Put any other jockey on there besides Irad and this is easily 5-1 instead. If you’re betting exotics, keep the 3 in them, but I certainly won’t be betting this one to win. The Saez horse #6 One Fast Orb is 6-1 ML, which is enough for me to take in this one. #8 Yogurt is one of the only horses with previous experience that was somewhat decent, but she still only ran a 48 Beyer both times. Truly not loving anyone here, so I’ll also taking #9 Touch of Class, #11 Golden Voice, and #1 Lollygag. 

Race 5 (3:18pm): Allowance Optional Claiming, 8½ furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up

The 5th race of the day is frequently the most important, and today that is true again. #2 Guest Suite is my favorite in terms of value. He has put up some good, consistent speed figures, but he hasn’t been the best finisher as of recently. And while he’s even been beat by others in this field, at 8-1 this is one I need to include. #7 Bourbon Resolution is the ML favorite at 3-1 and while I normally wouldn’t love him here because of the low price, I think this is a must have in your ticket. This is his third race since coming off of an 8 month layoff and he’s improved in both starts, finishing 4th then a narrow second. Previously trained by Steve Asmussen, #6 Title Ready goes out for the first time under new trainer Dallas Stewart (hence the no tag) and offers up value at 6-1 if you consider some of his past performances, just a bit risky as this is his first time out since almost exactly a year ago. #8 Troubling Moon has won 3 out of 6 with Hernandez on top against weaker competition. His last time out was his first off a long layoff and, similar to the 7, should improve here. 

Race 6 (3:51pm): Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up

Steve Asmussen has two horses in this race – the ML favorite #4 Much Better. who he puts his preferred rider Ricardo on top of, and #6 Super Sol, who makes his first start for Steve after switching from Baffert’s barn. I honestly like the value in both, their odds being 7-2 and 10-1, respectively. #8 Candy Cornell is a damn fast horse, and he’ll certainly try to break for the lead here. He had some great runs at Oaklawn before coming to Keeneland and has consistently high Beyers. #3 Early Mischief seems to work best at 6 furlongs, and she returns to that distance today after two difficult starts at Churchill. Graham and James Baker have given bettors some great ROI when pairing up as well. 

Race 7 (4:24pm): The Beaumont Stakes (G3), 7 furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr old fillies 

Decent stakes race here that offers up some Road to the Kentucky Oaks points. Just a 6 horse field in this one and I’m all over the favorite #2 Speech, who gets Javier Castellano on top and easily has the best and most consistent speed figures on paper. Will be using the 2 as a single in this one, 

Race 8 (4:57pm): The Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), 1 mile on the turf, 4 yr olds and up

Big stakes race here in the Maker’s Mark Mile! This is a great field with some amazing horses involved, including the ML favorite #4 Raging Bull who is a Chad Brown trained horse that has put up triple digit Beyers in 3 of his last 4 races. Absolutely cannot count this one out, but I’d like to find some better value here. Nobody is going to beat the 4’s late speed in this one, but could there be a chance at an early pace horse winning this mile race? #2 High Crime is 30-1 (!!!!) ML…now, even though he is way outclassed in this one and he likely won’t be able to hold up at this distance, I wouldn’t be shocked if this one hits the board…Great value for show bettors. Last year’s triple crown runner #10 War of Will is another one with early pace. He’s been struggling to finish strong and find his stride this year, but he has plenty of experience with class and should be looked at in this one. 

Race 9 (5:30pm): $50,000 Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs on the dirt, 3 yr olds and up

The biggest field of the day with 12 runners in as of this morning, which should give the outside horses a slight advantage. Going to use this race as one to spread my selections, hoping to have an easy last leg of my Pick 5 (should I be alive still). First time starter #5 Dive Deep is my first choice here thanks to Irad Ortiz, who is now basically just Mr. Reliable.  #9 Vasariano has some decent race experience but is yet to truly make an impact. However, he’s an Asmussen trained horse and gets Steve’s son in the irons, could be a fun way to end the day for the family. #7 Scoby is a second time starter after his debut a couple weeks back where he weakened in the final 8th of a mile. Going to need to control the pace a little better this time, but I like the speed in this one. Will also be picking the favorite, #6 Backshot, #4 Major Attraction, and #10 Baby White Sox here.

Below is my grid for today’s card. Pretty self explanatory and feel free to use it to build your exotics!

KEENELAND – July 10th, 2020
Must UseNext UpDeep Tickets
R14,361,7
R22,86,14
R36,184
R46,389,11,1
R572,68
R64,68,32
R72 3
R84310,2
R95,97,6,410

Here’s my Pick 5 ticket for the LATE Pick 5:
R5: 7,2,6,8
R6: 4,6,8,3
R7: 2 3 (scratch)
R8: 4,3,10
R9: 5,9,7,6,4,10
Total cost: $144 for a $.50 ticket.

Looking for a cheaper ticket? Try this:
R5: 7,2,6
R6: 4,6,8
R7: 3
R8: 4
R9: 5,9,7,6,4,10
Total cost: $27 for a $.50 ticket.

Best of luck everyone! Let’s build the bankroll this weekend. 6 days til the Spa!

Keep up on Twitter @SpaSaturdays.

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